List of Projection Scenarios, reference period from 2018 to 2043 and 2018 to 2068

1 - Projection scenario LG: low-growth

The low-growth scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.40 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 85.6 years for males and 88.8 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 0.65% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,080,910 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.18% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

2 - Projection scenario M1: medium-growth

The medium-growth (M1) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 87.0 years for males and 89.0 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,397,060 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

3 - Projection scenario M2: medium-growth

The medium-growth (M2) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 87.0 years for males and 89.0 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 1995/1996 and 2010/2011; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,397,060 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

4 - Projection scenario M3: medium-growth

The medium-growth (M3) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 87.0 years for males and 89.0 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 2003/2004 and 2008/2009; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,397,060 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

5 - Projection scenario M4: medium-growth

The medium-growth (M4) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 87.0 years for males and 89.0 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 2009/2010 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,397,060 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

6 - Projection scenario M5: medium-growth

The medium-growth (M5) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 87.0 years for males and 89.0 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 2014/2015 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,397,060 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

7 - Projection scenario HG: high-growth

The high-growth scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.79 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 88.0 years for males and 91.3 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 1.08% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,944,400 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.13% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

8 - Projection scenario SA: slow-aging

The slow-aging scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.79 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 85.6 years for males and 88.8 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 1.08% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,944,400 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.13% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

9 - Projection scenario FA: fast-aging

The fast-aging scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.40 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 88.0 years for males and 91.3 years for females in 2067/2068; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 0.65% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,080,910 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.18% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

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