Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories

Detailed information for 2023 to 2073 (Canada), 2023 to 2048 (Provinces and Territories)

Status:

Active

Frequency:

Occasional

Record number:

3602

This statistical program develops population projections for Canada, provinces and territories by age and gender, based on various assumptions on the components of population growth.

Data release - June 24, 2024

Description

This statistical program develops population projections for Canada, provinces and territories by age and gender, based on various assumptions on the components of population growth.

Reference period: The reference period is generally around 50 years from the launch of the projections for Canada and 25 years for the provinces and territories.

Subjects

  • Population and demography
  • Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The population universe covered by the Population Projections Program is identical to the population universe of the Demographic Estimates Program and the Census. The following groups of persons are included:

- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants who are outside Canada as employees of the Canadian government (federal or provincial) or members of the Canadian Armed Forces, and their families;
- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry;
- Non-permanent residents:
- persons in Canada claiming refugee status;
- persons in Canada who hold a student authorization (foreign students and student visa holders);
- persons in Canada who hold an employment authorization (foreign workers and work permit holders);
- persons in Canada who hold a Minister's permit (including extensions);
- all non-Canadian born dependants of persons claiming refugee status or of persons holding student authorization, employment authorization, or Minister's permit.

The following groups of persons, known collectively as foreign residents, are not included in the population universe of the Census:

- government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission, or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and their families;
- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada and their families;

Instrument design

This methodology does not apply.

Sampling

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Data sources

Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

The assumptions underlying the population projections are developed from various data sources: population estimates, vital statistics, administrative files as well as the objectives set by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada with regards to immigration targets.

The base population for the projections is the postcensal estimates of the population on July 1st of the base year, which are derived from the results of the most recent Census prior to the base year, adjusted for the census net undercoverage.

Error detection

This methodology does not apply.

Imputation

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Estimation

Statistics Canada's cohort-component model was developed to extend the data series of Statistics Canada's Demographic Estimates Program further in time. Thus, the provincial estimation model and the provincial projection model are accounting models that have the same components (e.g., births, deaths, etc.).

In the context of the projections, assumptions about the future evolution of each of these components are produced, separately for each province and territory. Statistics Canada uses a 'hybrid bottom-up' approach: 'bottom-up' because the projected values for Canada are the sum of the individual projections for the provinces and territories, with no projection produced at the Canada level, and 'hybrid' because the assumptions are often developed initially at the national level. In other words, the assumptions for each province and territory are derived from assumptions first developed at the national level.

Quality evaluation

The quality of the population projections is controlled through several mechanisms. Firstly, the population projections for Canada, provinces and territories produced at Statistics Canada benefit from a large consultation process involving many partners: provincial and territorial statistical focal points, the Advisory Committee on Demographic Statistics and Studies, several federal departments as well as the Canadian community of demographers through the Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends. Secondly, the present edition of the projections follows a comprehensive review of the projections program. As part of this review, an in-depth methodological review of each constituent of the cohort-component method of projection was conducted as well as a detailed analysis of trends for the component at the provincial/territorial, national and international levels. Then, the results are compared with those of previous projections, as well as with population projections produced by provincial and territorial statistical agencies.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

This methodology does not apply.

Data accuracy

The accuracy of any projection is conditional on the reliability of the base population estimates, the component data, and the degree to which the underlying assumptions correspond to future trends. Projections are not predictions; they are instead an effort to create plausible scenarios based on assumptions regarding the components of population growth, which are themselves subject to uncertainty. In this context, the accuracy of the data relies mostly on the calculation correctness and the credibility of the selected assumptions.

Documentation

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