Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories

Detailed information for 2000 to 2026

This statistical program develops population projections for Canada, provinces and territories by age and sex, based on various assumptions on the components of population growth.

Data release - March 13, 2001

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

This statistical program develops population projections for Canada, provinces and territories by age and sex, based on various assumptions on the components of population growth.

Reference period: The reference period is generally of 50 years from the launch of the projections for Canada and 25 years for the provinces and territories.

Subjects

• Population and demography
• Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The population universe covered by the Population Projections Program is identical to the population universe of the Demographic Estimates Program and the Census. The following groups of persons are included:

- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants who are outside Canada as employees of the Canadian government (federal or provincial) or members of the Canadian Armed Forces, and their families;
- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry;
- Non-permanent residents:
- persons in Canada claiming refugee status;
- persons in Canada who hold a student authorization (foreign students and student visa holders);
- persons in Canada who hold an employment authorization (foreign workers and work permit holders);
- persons in Canada who hold a Minister's permit (including extensions);
- all non-Canadian born dependants of persons claiming refugee status or of persons holding student authorization, employment authorization, or Minister's permit.

The following groups of persons, known collectively as foreign residents, are not included in the population universe of the Census:

- government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission, or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and their families;
- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada and their families;

Instrument design

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Sampling

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Data sources

Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

The assumptions underlying the population projections are developed from various data sources: population estimates, vital statistics, and administrative files obtained from Revenue Canada Agency and Citizenship and Immigration Canada about interprovincial migration, landed immigrants and non-permanents residents.

These projections use preliminary population estimates for 2000, which were derived from the 1996 Census of Population, adjusted for net undercoverage.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

Not applicable.

Estimation

The projections are based on the regional cohort component method. The method is basically a demographic accounting system. The calculations start with the base-year population distributed by age and sex. Age-and-sex specific survival ratios and age-specific fertility rates are applied to this distribution making allowance for immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, and interprovincial migration.

In order to produce consistent and comparable projections for Canada and provinces simultaneously, a "hybrid bottom up" projection model, incorporating internal migration projections, is used. Component assumptions on fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration and non-permanent residents are first developed at the national level and the corresponding provincial assumptions are derived consistent with those of Canada as a whole. Thus, the model allows separate projection of each component at the provincial/territorial level taking into account regional differences, and attempts to combine the advantages of the "top down" and "bottom up" approaches.

There are two basic steps in this approach. First, a separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made by using appropriate demographic parameters. These parameters (generally in the form of absolute values, rates, and ratios) are then added or applied to the population of the base year to obtain the future population by age and sex for each province and territory. Second, the national figures are derived by aggregating the projections for the provinces and territories..

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Every five years, new projections supersede the previous ones. The most recent issue of Catalogue Nos. 91-520-XPB and 91-520-XIB contains long-term projections. Each year, the medium scenario is updated and is available upon request from Demography Division.

Data accuracy

The accuracy of any projection is conditional on the reliability of the base population estimates, the component data, and the degree to which the underlying assumptions successfully anticipate future trends. Population change is influenced by various socio-economic factors which are not always accurately foreseen, and whose future impact on demographic growth cannot be accurately measured. In general, the uncertainty of future population growth can be expected to increase over the projection period, and to be greater for smaller populations. These projections have been developed on the basis of a careful analysis of past trends. It is not claimed, however, that the component values will always remain within the range implied by the assumptions. Year-to-year fluctuations in the relevant parameters should be expected.