Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas
Detailed information for July 1, 2025
Status:
Active
Frequency:
Annual
Record number:
3608
This estimates program provides estimates of population by age and gender for census divisions, census metropolitan areas, census agglomerations, economic regions, and census subdivisions.
Data release - January 14, 2026
Description
This estimates program provides estimates of population by age and gender for census divisions, census metropolitan areas, census agglomerations, economic regions, and census subdivisions.
This estimates program is used in the calculation of demographic, social and economic indicators (fertility rates, mortality rates, nuptiality rates, divorce rates, school enrolment rates, etc.) in which the population, or a part thereof, serves as the denominator. These data are used in calculation of weights for use in Statistics Canada's surveys (Labour Force Survey, General Social Survey, etc.). In addition, the data helps in the preparation of population projections by Statistics Canada, where estimates of population by age and gender are used as the base population.
Reference period: July 1st to June 30th
Subjects
- Population and demography
- Population estimates and projections
Data sources and methodology
Target population
The definition of target population specifies which persons should be included in the census, but not where these persons should be enumerated. The Canadian census uses the modified de jure method of enumeration, under which persons are to be enumerated at their usual place of residence (see next section), even if they are temporarily away on Census Day. Persons away from their usual place of residence and residing elsewhere in Canada must be enumerated at their usual place of residence and are considered present, but temporarily at the other location. Persons who have no usual place of residence are to be enumerated wherever they happen to be on Census Day.
The definition above is extended to demographic estimates produce at Statistics Canada, whereas the usual place of residence obtained from official administrative data sources is used to specify the location or characteristics of demographic events, regardless of temporary change in location.
The Census target population, and consequently the target population for demographic estimates at Statistics Canada, includes the following groups:
• Canadian citizens and landed immigrants (permanent residents) with a usual place of residence in Canada
• Canadian citizens and landed immigrants (permanent residents) who are abroad, either on a military base or attached to a diplomatic mission
• Canadian citizens and landed immigrants (permanent residents) at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry or Canadian government vessels
• non-permanent residents with a usual place of residence in Canada
- who are claiming refugee status (asylum seekers)
- who hold a study permit (covering Census Day)
- who hold a work permit (covering Census Day)
and family members living with them.
The Census and demographic estimates population universe does not include foreign residents, but since 1991, it has included non-permanent residents.
Instrument design
This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.
Sampling
This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.
Data sources
Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.
Description of the Component Method - The postcensal population of census divisions (CDs), census metropolitan areas (CMAs), census agglomerations (CAs) and economics regions (ERs) are produced using data from the most recent census adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU) (including the adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements (IERS)) and adjusted to July 1st (record number 3901). Population estimates - preliminary, updated, and final - are produced by the component method. This method consists in taking the population figures from the most recent census, adjusted for CNU (including IERS), and adding or subtracting the number of births, deaths, and components of international and internal (interprovincial and intraprovincial) migration. For example, to estimate the population as of July 1 of a non-census year, demographic events experienced by each cohort (defined here as the total number of persons born during the same census year) since the previous census must be considered. For each component, the sum of the subprovincial areas in each province or territory conforms to the corresponding provincial/territorial totals, and so the population estimates during these components are also consistent with the provincial population estimates.
A different method is used to produce population estimates for census subdivisions (CSDs). Postcensal estimates are based on the latest census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements) and on the estimated population growth that occurred since that census, as calculated using fiscal data.
Error detection
This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.
Imputation
This methodological step does not apply to this survey.
Estimation
This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.
Quality evaluation
Measure of the precocity error
The quality of preliminary estimates of components is evaluated using precocity errors. Precocity error is defined as the difference between preliminary and final estimate of a particular component in terms of its relative proportion of the total population for the relevant geographical area. It can be calculated for both population and component estimates. The precocity error measures the impact of the trade-off of accuracy in favour of timeliness on the estimated population.
Analysis of precocity errors allows for useful comparisons between components, as well as between geographical areas of different population size. Note that when compared to the total population for an area, the differences between preliminary and final estimates of the components are quite small. However, this type of error has a different impact on each component and geographical area.
According to the analysis of the most recent precocity errors and assuming that the quality of the basic data remains constant, the present postcensal estimates should have an acceptable degree of reliability.
Measure of the error of closure
The error of closure measures the exactness of the final postcensal estimates. It is defined as the difference between the final postcensal population estimates on Census Day and the enumerated population of the most recent census adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU). A positive error of closure means that the postcensal population estimates have overestimated the population.
The error of closure comes from two sources: errors primarily due to sampling when measuring census coverage and errors related to the components of population growth over the intercensal period. For each five-year intercensal period, the error of closure can only be calculated following the release of census data and estimates of the CNU.
By dividing the error of closure by the census population adjusted for CNU the differences are relatively small at the national level (0.2% for 2001, 0.1% for 2006, 0.5% for 2011, 0.3% for2016, and -0.1% for 2021). At the provincial and territorial level, as at the subprovincial level differences are understandably larger, since the estimates are also affected by errors in estimating interprovincial and subprovincial migration.
Disclosure control
Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.
Revisions and seasonal adjustment
Non-final postcensal data are updated once a year. After each census, postcensal estimates are updated to produce the intercensal estimates.
Data accuracy
The estimates of population by age and gender contain certain inaccuracies stemming from: 1) errors in corrections for the census net undercoverage; 2) imperfections in other data sources; 3) the methods used to estimate the components. Errors due to estimation methodologies and data sources other than censuses are difficult to quantify, but not insignificant. The more detailed the breakdown of the data, the larger the inaccuracy coefficient becomes. The component totals contain a certain amount of initial error, and the methodology used to classify them by gender and age produces additional error in the figures at each stage. Nevertheless, the components can be divided into two categories according to the quality of their data sources: births, deaths, immigration, and non-permanent residents, for which the sources of final data may be considered very good; emigrants, returning emigrants as well as interprovincial and intraprovincial migration for which the methods used may be a more substantial source of error. Lastly, the size of the error due to component estimation may vary by region, gender, and age and errors in some components (births and emigration) may have a greater impact on a given age group or gender. Intercensal estimates contain the same types of errors as postcensal estimates, as well as errors resulting from the way in which the errors present at the end of the period were distributed, that is, based on the time elapsed since the reference census.
Documentation
- Technical guide on demographic estimates at Statistics Canada
The Technical guide on demographic estimates at Statistics Canada provides detailed descriptions of the most current data sources and methods used by the Centre for demography at Statistics Canada to produce demographic estimates as part of the Demographic estimates program. They comprise postcensal and intercensal population estimates; base population; births and deaths; immigrants; emigrants; returning emigrants; non-permanent residents; interprovincial migration; subprovincial estimates of population and intraprovincial migration; population estimates by age and gender; and census family estimates. A glossary of commonly used terms is available at the end of the guide.
Last review: December 17, 2025
- Date modified: