Natural Resources Satellite Account - Critical Minerals Extension (NRSA-CME)

Detailed information for 2023

The purpose of this program is to measure the economic contribution of critical mineral production in Canada in terms of output, gross domestic product (GDP) and jobs.

Data release - October 6, 2025

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

The Natural Resources Satellite Account - Critical Minerals Extension (NRSA-CME) aims to provide estimates of nominal output, real and nominal GDP, and jobs associated with the production of critical minerals in Canada.

The product contains two tables. The first includes economic indicators by type of critical mineral (aggregated), and the second presents these indicators by the Natural Resources Satellite Account (NRSA) mineral and mining commodity classification.

The data is presented annually and are at a national level.

The NRSA-CME is produced in collaboration with Natural Resources Canada (NRCan).

Reference period: Annual, starting with reference year 2019. The base year for real GDP estimates presented in the extension is 2019=100.

Subjects

• Economic accounts
• Natural resources

Data sources and methodology

Target population

All production of critical minerals in Canada.

The Government of Canada currently lists the following 34 critical minerals:
Aluminum
Antimony
Bismuth
Cesium
Chromium
Cobalt
Copper
Fluorspar
Gallium
Germanium
Graphite
Helium
High-purity iron ore*
Indium
Lithium
Magnesium
Manganese
Molybdenum
Nickel
Niobium
Phosphorus
Platinum group metals
Potash
Rare earth elements
Scandium
Silicon metal
Tantalum
Tellurium
Tin
Titanium
Tungsten
Uranium
Vanadium
Zinc

*Currently excluded from the estimations.

Instrument design

This methodology does not apply.

Sampling

This methodology does not apply.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Estimation

The NRSA-CME uses survey and administrative data, along with benchmark estimates from the SUTs and the NRSA, to highlight the economic contribution of critical minerals within the natural resources sector.

The first step in the estimation process is to identify critical minerals within the mining sector. This step is required for the disaggregation of existing data, because the SUTs classify mining products based on the type of concentrate mined and not the type of recoverable metal contained within the concentrate. For example, if there was $100 worth of cobalt and $200 worth of nickel within nickel concentrate, the SUTs would classify all $300 worth of metal as nickel. Since many critical minerals are extracted as by-products of other mineral and mining extraction processes, it is not always possible to clearly delineate the economic aspects of these minerals from more aggregate estimates.

The mineral production surveys provide estimates of the quantity of recoverable metals produced, that is, the amount of specific metals contained within each concentrate, along with inventory changes. The surveys also contain data on the value and quantity of shipments of recoverable metals. From these surveys, the dollar value of the output of various critical minerals are obtained. This is done using implicit shipment prices, combined with production quantities, for all identified critical minerals.

These output values are then combined with GDP-to-output ratios obtained from the SUTs for the industry in which most of the extraction of each critical mineral occurs. For example, most cobalt is extracted as a by-product or co-product of nickel. As such, the production function for extracting cobalt is assumed to be similar to the production function for the extraction of nickel. The copper, nickel, lead, and zinc ore mining industry had a GDP-to-output ratio of approximately 62.8% in 2020. This means that for every $100 of output in this industry, $62.80 of GDP is generated. Similarly, $37.20 of inputs are required to extract this $100 of output.

For cobalt, with an estimated output value of approximately $208 million in 2020, using the GDP-to-output ratio would imply that $131 million of GDP is generated from the extraction of this commodity. This process is carried out for each commodity identified as a critical mineral in the production surveys.

Once current dollar estimates of GDP have been created, price indices are used to deflate the estimates and create constant dollar estimates of real GDP (at 2019 prices), reflecting a volume estimate of GDP. Prices are derived from a combination of implicit survey prices and spot prices obtained from NRCan.

Estimates by critical mineral are then aggregated to form a "total critical minerals" category, as well as several special aggregations.

For the estimates of jobs associated with the production of critical minerals, the method involves using job estimates from the Canadian Productivity Accounts by detailed mining industry. Firstly, the industries where the production of each critical mineral is likely to occur are identified. Secondly, real production estimates from the critical minerals extension are used to split the industries between critical mineral production and other production. Lastly, the proportion of critical mineral production for each industry is applied to the total job estimates. For example, if cobalt production represents 25% of the production of the copper, nickel, lead, and zinc mining industry, then 25% of jobs in that industry will be allocated to the production of cobalt.

Except for aluminum and aluminum products, cobalt, copper, nickel, and zinc, as well as other critical minerals that are only by-products of refinery output, the estimates in this report highlight the economic contribution associated with the extraction of critical minerals and do not include the value added associated with any refinery activity.

Quality evaluation

The Natural Resources Satellite Account - Critical Minerals Extension is based on a wide array of related and comparable data. Labour-related estimates are benchmarked to the Canadian Productivity Accounts, while the economic indicators are benchmarked to estimates from the Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects which could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Revisions to the NRSA-CME are mainly attributable to revisions to the underlying source data, namely the Canadian Productivity Accounts; the various industry surveys used to derive the ratios; and revisions of the Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts. Statistical revisions are carried out regularly in the Canadian Productivity Accounts and the Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts, to incorporate the most current information from censuses, annual surveys, administrative statistics, public accounts and other sources. Periodically, more comprehensive revisions are conducted. These provide an opportunity to improve estimation methods, incorporate improved data sources, introduce conceptual changes and adopt new international standards into the Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts.

Seasonal adjustment is not necessary given that the NRSA-CME is available on an annual basis only.

Data accuracy

No direct measures of the margin of error in the estimates can be calculated. The quality of the estimates can be inferred from an analysis of revisions and from a subjective assessment of the data sources and methodology used in the preparation of the estimates.