Population Projections for Census Divisions and Subdivisions

Detailed information for 2024 to 2049

This statistical program develops a set of population projections by age and gender for Canadian communities, as defined by the statistical concepts of census divisions (CD) and census subdivisions (CSD).

Data release - November 28, 2025

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

Demographic projections for census divisions and subdivisions are produced using an innovative approach to the traditional cohort change model. An important feature of this model is the possibility to produce new projections quickly as new provincial and territorial projections become available or following the annual update of the subprovincial population estimates. These projections provide impartial, evidence-based insights to all levels of government, infrastructure owners, operators and investors to improve infrastructure planning and decision-making across Canada. The data is also expected to inform land use and urban planning, housing needs, transportation and communications.

This statistical program was developed on behalf of the Canadian Infrastructure Council.

Reference period: The projection horizon for census divisions and subdivisions is 25 years.

Subjects

• Population and demography
• Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The population universe covered by the Population Projections Program is identical to the population universe of the Demographic Estimates Program and the Census. The following groups of persons are included:

- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants who are outside Canada as employees of the Canadian government (federal or provincial) or members of the Canadian Armed Forces, and their families;
- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry;
- Non-permanent residents:
- persons in Canada claiming refugee status;
- persons in Canada who hold a student authorization (foreign students and student visa holders);
- persons in Canada who hold an employment authorization (foreign workers and work permit holders);
- persons in Canada who hold a Minister's permit (including extensions);
- all non-Canadian born dependants of persons claiming refugee status or of persons holding student authorization, employment authorization, or Minister's permit.

The following groups of persons, known collectively as foreign residents, are not included in the population universe of the Census:
- government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission, or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and their families;
- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada and their families;
- residents of other countries on a temporary visit to Canada.

Geographic regions with a total population of less than 800 at the start or end of the population estimates time series are excluded.

Instrument design

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Sampling

This methodology does not apply.

Data sources

Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

The assumptions underlying the population projections are developed from various data sources: population estimates, vital statistics, administrative files as well as the objectives set by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada with regards to immigration targets.

The base population for the projections is the postcensal estimates of the population on July 1st of the base year, which are derived from the results of the most recent Census prior to the base year, adjusted for the census net undercoverage.

Projection results are calibrated using a two-stage calibration process, where CSD projections are calibrated to Census Division (CD) projections, which are in turn calibrated to age, gender and province/territory projections from multiple scenarios derived from the most recent Population Projections for Canada, provinces and territories.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Estimation

Statistics Canada's cohort change model was developed to extend further in time the data series of Statistics Canada's Demographic Estimates Program for sub-provincial areas. Contrary to Statistics Canada's cohort-component model, which accounts for each component of demographic growth individually, the cohort change model encapsulates all the demographic events that can influence population size, but without specifically describing its contours.

Statistics Canada cohort change model builds on the classical cohort change model while adding new innovative methods to further increase the reliability of the projections. Most notably, it extrapolates the trends observed in the population estimates using a mixed approach encompassing both cohort change ratios (CCR) and cohort change differences (CCD) and doing so iteratively over the entire projection horizon. Projection results from the cohort change model are then calibrated to the projection results from the cohort-component model for Canada, provinces and territories using a two-stage calibration process.

Quality evaluation

The quality of the population projections is controlled through several mechanisms. Firstly, the population projections for Canada, provinces and territories produced at Statistics Canada (on which the population projections for census divisions and subdivisions are calibrated) benefit from a large consultation process involving many partners: provincial and territorial statistical focal points, the Advisory Committee on Demographic Statistics and Studies, several federal departments as well as the Canadian community of demographers through the Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends.

Secondly, an extensive evaluation of the pre-calibrated population projection results for census divisions and subdivisions is conducted. This includes a confrontation of post- and pre-calibration results by province/territory, age and gender. It also includes an outlier detection and validation process for multiple demographic indicators, such as population growth and age/gender distribution.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

The population projections for census divisions and subdivisions are generally revised following the release of updated population estimates for census divisions and subdivisions, as well as updated results from the Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories program. Revisions allow to incorporate new demographic trends and demographic assumptions.

Data accuracy

The accuracy of any projection is conditional on the reliability of the base population estimates, the component data, and the degree to which the underlying assumptions correspond to future trends. Projections are not predictions; they are instead an effort to create plausible scenarios based on assumptions regarding the components of population growth, which are themselves subject to uncertainty. In this context, the accuracy of the data relies mostly on the calculation correctness and the credibility of the selected assumptions.