Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada

Detailed information for 2006-2031

This statistical program develops population projections by Aboriginal identity for Canada, the provinces, census metropolitan areas and other selected regions based on various assumptions and scenarios on the components of population growth.

Data release - December 7, 2011

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

This statistical program produces population projections by Aboriginal identity (North American Indian, Métis, Inuit, other Aboriginal responses and non-Aboriginal population) by age, sex and selected regions (provinces, census metropolitan areas, on and off reserve, and Inuit Nunangat). These projections are based on various assumptions and scenarios on the fertility, mortality, migrations and ethnic mobility (inter- and intragenerational) of the projected groups.

Subjects

• Indigenous peoples
• Population and demography
• Population characteristics
• Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The target population for these projections is the complete Canadian population.

Instrument design

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Sampling

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Data sources

Data are collected from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

The base population for the projections is the 2006 Census database (20% sample), adjusted for net undercoverage in the census and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves.

The parameters and assumptions underlying the population projections were developed from various data sources: the 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses (20% samples), survey data (e.g General Social Survey), administrative data (population estimates, vital statistics, Indian Register, files from Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Longitudinal Administrative Database) and data linkages (1991 Census mortality follow-up database).

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

Imputation methods were used to develop the base population, in particular to assign characteristics to the incompletely enumerated populations living on reserves. Such methods are also sometimes used in the projection process to assign certain attributes to records.

Estimation

The projections were established using Demosim, a microsimulation population projection model. Programmed with Mogden, this model projects one at a time individuals in the base population as well as individuals added during the simulation through births and immigration. To do so, the model associates each individual, in continuous time, to probabilities of experiencing various events, probabilities from which are derived "waiting times" between a given moment and the occurrence of the events. The main events simulated by Demosim are: child birth, death, emigration and changes related to the place of residence, the Aboriginal identity, and the level of education.

Demosim also allows for various assumptions to be developed on each component of growth (including differential behaviours) for Aboriginal people, for non-Aboriginal people, for both or for the relationship between the two. Thus, this projection exercise is based on two fertility assumptions, two assumptions on intragenerational ethnic mobility, two internal migration assumptions, and one assumption each on mortality, education, marital status, intergenerational ethnic mobility and other components (e.g., international migrations of non-Aboriginal people). Five combinations of assumptions were then selected to create population evolution scenarios that are plausible in light of past trends and relevant from a policy development viewpoint.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

The model may be subject to revisions to be carried out on a cost recovery basis.

Data accuracy

The accuracy of any projection depends on the quality of the data relating to the base population and the components of population growth, as well as the adequacy of the assumptions on future trends. Projections are not predictions; they instead represent an effort to establish plausible scenarios based on assumptions relating to the components, demographic or otherwise, of growth, which are themselves subject to uncertainty. Accordingly, it cannot be claimed that the values to be observed over the coming years will always remain within the range suggested by the projection scenarios.