Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM)

Summary of changes

Activity on this program started: 1947

Reference period of change - March 2018

Starting with the May 2018 release of March data, estimates for the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing are being calculated using a new sample. The sample design has been modified to improve efficiency. The sample is periodically refreshed to take advantage of improvements made to the Business Register since the last sample selection, reflecting births, deaths and other changes to the survey population.

In addition, the survey estimation methodology has been enhanced to use more administrative data. Seasonal adjustment specifications and factors were reviewed and updated.

The data have been revised using historical linkage factors designed to preserve the continuity of the time series. The linkage method leads to larger revisions for more recent periods. Unadjusted estimates of sales of goods manufactured, inventories and orders in tables 16-10-0047-01 (formerly: CANSIM 304-0014) and 16-10-0048-01(formerly: CANSIM 304-0015) have been revised back to January 2013 and back to January 2011 for the seasonally adjusted data.

Real manufacturing sales, orders, inventory owned and inventory estimates in table 16-10-0013-10 (formerly: CANSIM table 377-0010) have been revised back to 2002, reflecting a change in the base year from 2007 to 2012.

Reference period of change - July 2017

Unadjusted data for sales of goods manufactured, inventories and orders have been revised back to January 2014, while seasonally adjusted data have been revised back to January 2012. These important data changes are the result of the following:

1) Data comparisons between the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing and the Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging Industries. This is an annual process to ensure that the data received for the largest units in both the annual and monthly surveys are consistent.

2) New information received from respondents and the availability of more up-to-date administrative data.

3) Revisions to the constant dollar series back to January 2012.

Reference period of change - April 2017

With this release, the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing has published real (price deflated) sales of goods manufactured for the principal manufacturing industries. The industry-level data are now available on CANSIM table 377-0009 for reference months January 2007 to April 2017.

Reference period of change - September 2016

Unadjusted data for sales of goods manufactured, inventories and orders have been revised back to January 2013, while seasonally adjusted data have been revised back to January 2011. These important data changes are the result of the following:

1) Data comparisons between the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing and the 2014 Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging. This is an annual process to ensure that the data received for the largest units in both the annual and monthly surveys are consistent.

2) New information received from respondents and the availability of more up-to-date administrative data.

3) Updates to X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment models. As in past years, trading-day weights and analysis of trends, levels and moving averages have been updated and revised. This ensures that the seasonally adjusted data accurately reflect the latest developments in manufacturing.

4) Revisions to the constant dollar series back to January 2011.

Reference period of change - September 2015

Unadjusted data for sales of goods manufactured, inventories and orders have been revised back to January 2009, while seasonally adjusted data have been revised back to January 2007. These important data changes are the result of the following:

1) Data comparisons between the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM) and the 2013 Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging. This is an annual process to ensure that the data received for the largest units in both the annual and monthly surveys are consistent.

2) New information received from respondents and the availability of more up-to-date administrative data.

3) Updates to X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment models. As in past years, trading-day weights and analysis of trends, levels and moving averages have been updated and revised. This ensures that the seasonally adjusted data accurately reflect the latest developments in manufacturing.

4) Revisions to the constant dollar series back to January 2009.

5) Review of the MSM confidentiality pattern undertaken based on the revised data. Changes to the pattern were made for the years 2012 to 2015.

Reference period of change - March 2014

With the release on May 15th, 2014, estimates of sales of goods manufactured, inventories and orders have been revised back to January 2009 for the unadjusted data, and back to January 2007 for the seasonally adjusted data. These important data changes are the result of the following:

1. Data confrontation between the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM) and the 2012 Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging (ASML)

Data confrontation to improve the coherence between MSM data and revised 2011 and preliminary 2012 ASML estimates was completed along with historical revisions to MSM data. This is an annual process to ensure that the data received for the largest units in both the annual and monthly surveys are consistent.

2. Updates to X-12 ARIMA seasonal adjustment models

As in past years, trading-day weights and analysis of trends, levels and moving averages have been updated and revised. This ensures that seasonally adjusted data accurately reflect the latest developments in manufacturing.

3. Revisions to the constant dollar series

The constant dollar series has been updated based on revised MSM data. The volumes data were revised back to January 2007.

4. Review of the MSM confidentiality pattern

A review of the MSM confidentiality pattern was undertaken based on the revised data. Changes to the pattern were made for 2011 to 2014.

Reference period of change - March 2013

With the release on May 15th, 2013, the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM) has published new estimates based on a new sample. Estimates of sales of goods manufactured, inventories and orders have been revised back to January 2009 for the unadjusted data, and back to January 2007 for the seasonally adjusted data. These new estimates result from four principal changes: the re-stratification of the MSM sample; data confrontation between the MSM and the 2011 Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging (ASML); updates to X-12 ARIMA seasonal adjustment models; and conversion from North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) 2007 to NAICS 2012.

The Industry Accounts Division and the National Economic Accounts Division have updated the constant dollar series, based on the revised MSM data. The volumes data were revised back to January 2002. Additionally, the reference year for the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing volume data has been changed from 2002 to 2007.

Target population - As of the March 2013 reference month, the industry classification is based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) 2012.

Reference period of change - July 2010

Starting with this release, the constant dollar data are derived from the industrial product price indexes (IPPI), based on a 2002 basket of products. Previously, the IPPI was based on a 1997 basket.

Reference period of change - August 2007

With the August 2007 reference month release, the MSM has harmonized its concepts to the Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging (ASML). The definitions have not been modified nor has the information collected from the survey. The variable formerly called "Shipments" is now called "Sales of goods manufactured". As well, minor modifications were made to the inventory component names.

Target population - As of the August 2007 reference month, the industry classification is based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) 2007.

Reference period of change - January 2007

Sampling - As of the January 2007 reference month, a new sample was introduced. It is standard practice that every few years the sample is refreshed to ensure that the survey frame is up to date with births, deaths and other changes in the population. The refreshed sample is linked at the detailed level to prevent data breaks and to ensure the continuity of time series. It is designed to be more representative of the manufacturing industry at both the national and provincial levels.

With the refreshing of the MSM sample in 2007, it was determined that benchmarking would no longer be required (retroactive to 2004) because the MSM now accurately represented 100% of the sample universe.

Reference period of change - July 2005

With the July 2005 release, all data have been rebenchmarked to the revised 2001 Annual Survey of Manufactures. Estimates of shipments, inventories and orders have been revised back to January 2000. Although the historical month-to-month movements were preserved, there were minor adjustments made to the levels of the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing.

Reference period of change - August 2004

Data sources - To reduce respondent burden, collected data for approximately 50% of the simple establishments in the MSM sample will now be replaced with modeled estimates based on Goods and Services Tax (GST) returns, effective the August 2004 reference month. Revenue data based on the GST is now received from the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) on a monthly basis. Data for shipments are derived through the use of statistical modelling. The model takes into account the shipment to revenue relationship, as well as the time lag between the reference month for the MSM and the reference period of the GST data.

Reference period of change - January 2004

As of January 2004, the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM) data were revised back to January 1999. The adjustments made to the MSM data were the result of several factors: the use of new and revised data; updates to the industrial classification (moving the NAICS codes 3151-3159 from Durable to Non-durable); the updating of the seasonal adjustment factors; and most significantly, the benchmarking of the MSM to the 2000 and 2001 ASM (Annual Survey of Manufactures) levels.

Reference period of change - January 2001

Target population - As of January 2001, data collected from the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM) are classified according to the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaces the 1980 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Reference year 2000 is the last year for which data are released on an SIC basis.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment - As a part of the reclassification to the NAICS, the MSM was benchmarked to the 1998 Annual Survey of Manufactures.

Previous years' data have been recalculated to the new classification system back to 1992.

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