List of Projection Scenarios, reference period from 2013 to 2038 and 2013 to 2063

1 - Projection scenario L: low-growth

The low-growth scenario is defined by the following assumptions: a Canadian total fertility rate that reaches 1.53 births per woman in 2021/2022 and remains constant thereafter; a Canadian life expectancy that reaches 85.9 years for males and 87.1 years for females in 2062/2063; interprovincial migration based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 2010/2011; a national immigration rate that reaches 0.5% in 2022/2023 and remains constant thereafter; an annual number of non-permanent residents (Canada) that reaches 733,600 in 2014 and remains constant thereafter; a national net emigration rate of 0.16%.

2 - Projection scenario M1: medium-growth, 1991/1992 to 2010/2011 trends

The medium-growth and 1991/1992 to 2010/2011 interprovincial migrations trends scenario is defined by the following assumptions: a Canadian total fertility rate that reaches 1.67 births per woman in 2021/2022 and remains constant thereafter; a Canadian life expectancy that reaches 87.5 years for males and 89.1 years for females in 2062/2063; interprovincial migration based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 2010/2011; a national immigration rate that reaches 0.75% in 2022/2023 and remains constant thereafter; an annual number of non-permanent residents (Canada) that reaches 864,600 in 2021 and remains constant thereafter; a national net emigration rate of 0.19%.

3 - Projection scenario M2: medium-growth, 1991/1992 to 1999/2000 trends

The medium-growth and 1991/1992 to 1999/2000 interprovincial migrations trends scenario is defined by the following assumptions: a Canadian total fertility rate that reaches 1.67 births per woman in 2021/2022 and remains constant thereafter; a Canadian life expectancy that reaches 87.5 years for males and 89.1 years for females in 2062/2063; interprovincial migration based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 1999/2000; a national immigration rate that reaches 0.75% in 2022/2023 and remains constant thereafter; an annual number of non-permanent residents (Canada) that reaches 864,600 in 2021 and remains constant thereafter; a national net emigration rate of 0.19%.

4 - Projection scenario M3: medium-growth, 1999/2000 to 2002/2003 trends

The medium-growth and 1999/2000 to 2002/2003 interprovincial migrations trends scenario is defined by the following assumptions: a Canadian total fertility rate that reaches 1.67 births per woman in 2021/2022 and remains constant thereafter; a Canadian life expectancy that reaches 87.5 years for males and 89.1 years for females in 2062/2063; interprovincial migration based on the trends observed between 1999/2000 and 2002/2003; a national immigration rate that reaches 0.75% in 2022/2023 and remains constant thereafter; an annual number of non-permanent residents (Canada) that reaches 864,600 in 2021 and remains constant thereafter; a national net emigration rate of 0.19%.

5 - Projection scenario M4: medium-growth, 2004/2005 to 2007/2008 trends

The medium-growth and 2004/2005 to 2007/2008 interprovincial migrations trends scenario is defined by the following assumptions: a Canadian total fertility rate that reaches 1.67 births per woman in 2021/2022 and remains constant thereafter; a Canadian life expectancy that reaches 87.5 years for males and 89.1 years for females in 2062/2063; interprovincial migration based on the trends observed between 2004/2005 and 2007/2008; a national immigration rate that reaches 0.75% in 2022/2023 and remains constant thereafter; an annual number of non-permanent residents (Canada) that reaches 864,600 in 2021 and remains constant thereafter; a national net emigration rate of 0.19%.

6 - Projection scenario M5: medium-growth, 2009/2010 to 2010/2011 trends

The medium-growth and 2009/2010 to 2010/2011 interprovincial migrations trends scenario is defined by the following assumptions: a Canadian total fertility rate that reaches 1.67 births per woman in 2021/2022 and remains constant thereafter; a Canadian life expectancy that reaches 87.5 years for males and 89.1 years for females in 2062/2063; interprovincial migration based on the trends observed between 2009/2010 and 2010/2011; a national immigration rate that reaches 0.75% in 2022/2023 and remains constant thereafter; an annual number of non-permanent residents (Canada) that reaches 864,600 in 2021 and remains constant thereafter; a national net emigration rate of 0.19%.

7 - Projection scenario H: high-growth

The high-growth scenario is defined by the following assumptions: a Canadian total fertility rate that reaches 1.88 births per woman in 2021/2022 and remains constant thereafter; a Canadian life expectancy that reaches 89.9 years for males and 91.9 years for females in 2062/2063; interprovincial migration based on the trends observed between 1991/1992 and 2010/2011; a national immigration rate that reaches 0.9% in 2022/2023 and remains constant thereafter; an annual number of non-permanent residents (Canada) that reaches 1,144,300 in 2031 and remains constant thereafter; a national net emigration rate of 0.21%.