Canada's Balance of International Payments

Detailed information for first quarter 2016

Status:

Active

Frequency:

Quarterly

Record number:

1534

This statistical program records all economic transactions between Canadian residents and non-residents in two accounts, the current account and the capital and financial account - together these accounts are referred to Canada's Balance of International Payments

Data release - May 30, 2016

Description

This statistical program records transactions between Canadian residents and non-residents, allocated between the current account and the capital and financial account. The transactions recorded in the balance of payments statement represent the exchanges and transfers of economic values between Canadian residents and non-residents viewed from a Canadian perspective. The economic values exchanged or transferred can be goods, services, primary and secondary income or financial claims. The transactions are presented using a double entry accounting system in which two entries should be recorded simultaneously for each transaction. The two entries are used to recognize the giving and receiving sides of every transaction. Imports and income payable are recorded as debit entries while exports and income receivable are recorded as credit entries. Correspondingly, a capital outflow in the financial account refers to a net acquisition of Canadian assets abroad or a decrease in Canadian liabilities to non-residents. A capital inflow is associated to a disposal of Canadian assets abroad or an increase in Canadian liabilities to non-residents.

Government relies on these statistics to help shape it's financial and trade policies. Balance of payments statistics are also used extensively by businesses, the academic community, the media and the public at large for both informational and analytical purposes. Finally, they are needed to meet Canada's statistical obligations to supranational organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The Balance of Payments statistical program integrates data from other programs within the larger Non-resident Sector Program of the Canadian National Economic Accounts. For a more extensive description of the program, please refer to the document entitled "Description and definitions of Canada's balance of payments accounts" accessible in the "Documentation" section located at the end of the detailed information for this statistical program.

Statistical activity

Canada's Balance of International Payments is compiled by integrating numerous data sources related to transactions between residents and non-residents into statements that measure the flow of goods, services, incomes and financial claims to and from the economic territory of Canada. The Balance of Payments Manual Version 6, as published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlines the concepts, methods, accounting identities and accounting framework required to produce Canada's Balance of International Payments. The statistical activity resembles that of a business accountant that is required to take basic company information and summarize it into a series of statements which provides information on the financial health of a business. In the case of Canada's Balance of International Payments basic statistical information is taken from a variety of sources (such as business surveys, government public accounts and statements from financial institutions) and summarized into a Current, Capital and Financial Account which portray the economic interaction between residents and non-residents.

Subjects

  • Balance of international payments
  • Economic accounts
  • Government financial statistics

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The universe for balance of payments purposes embraces all transactors that reside in Canada that engage in international transactions. The transactors can be businesses, governments, non-profit institutions, or households.

Most of the data used to derive the balance of payments originates from surveys of Canadian companies that are asked to consolidate all of their Canadian operations and accordingly are referred to as Canadian enterprises. The survey frame is believed to contain up-to-date coverage of all Canadian enterprises having a significant amount of international transactions. This frame is constantly updated through a number of sources.

Instrument design

There are several questionnaires that collect data that are used directly for compiling Canada's Balance of International Payments. These are:

BP11 - Gold and silver transactions, assets and liabilities (monthly)

BP-QT - Quarterly investment between Canada and other countries (quarterly).
BP21S - International transactions in commercial services (annual)_
BP21SQ - International transactions in commercial services (quarterly)
BP22 - Investment in Canada by non-Canadian corporations (annual)
BP22A - Investment in Canada by non-Canadian corporations (quarterly)
BP27 - Transactions between Canadian incorporated insurance companies
and their foreign affiliates, agencies and bank accounts and other companies
or persons outside Canada (annual)
BP28 - Transactions between Canadian branches and foreign insurance companies
in Canada and head or other offices, companies or persons outside Canada
(annual)
BP29 - Report by trust and mortgage loan companies in Canada on transactions with non-residents (annual)
BP31 - Futures trading with non-residents (quarterly)

There are also many other questionnaires that collect data that are used to compile other statistical outputs that ultimately feed into the balance of payments. For information about questionnaires used in other statistical programs that ultimately feed into the Balance of Payments, please follow the links listed in the Data sources section below.

The questionnaires used for the Balance of Payments were originally designed at various times from the 1950's. They have been periodically redesigned up to recently in the case of the financial surveys.

Sampling

This is a sample survey with a cross-sectional design.

The quarterly questionnaires providing direct input to the Balance of International Payments are sent to Canadian enterprises known to have or believed to have significant international activity. Roughly 6000 firms receive the annual questionnaires. Collection of this data on a quarterly basis is limited to approximately 900 firms with very high levels of international transactions, while there are slightly over 100 firms that are surveyed on a monthly basis.

The annual surveys are believed to cover close to 100% of the target population. Some quarterly data are modelled based on previous annual data.

A sample rotation system is used for the BP21S (International transactions in commercial services), based on the level of trade in services. For those companies that are part of the three year cycle for sample rotation, the most recent reported values are carried forward during the two years a company is out of sample.

The BP21SQ is a probability sample where each unit surveyed has a weight associated with it. Values for surveyed units are multiplied by their respective weights to estimate totals for the target population.

Data sources

Responding to this survey is mandatory.

Data are collected directly from survey respondents, extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

A significant number of data sources are used to compile Canada's Balance of International Payments.

Questionnaires - Data are collected, in part, via monthly, quarterly, and annual questionnaires; response is mandatory for the surveyed entities. Quarterly questionnaires are sent out on the last business day of the quarter. Respondents are instructed to send their completed questionnaires to the International Accounts and Trade Division within four weeks after the end of the quarter. A further follow-up is done over the next two weeks followed by phone calls.

A number of administrative data sources are also used such as
- Citizenship & Immigration Canada (revenues for issuing migrant permits to non-residents)
- National Defence (revenues from other countries for the use of Canadian military equipments)
- Bank of Canada (geographical distribution of assets and liabilities of Canadian banks; official international reserves)
- Global Affairs Canada (transfer payments and contracts with Canadian service providers, expenses from Canadian embassies abroad)
- Canada Revenue Agency (i.e. withholding tax revenues)
- U.S. Internal Revenue Service (withholding tax paid to US from Canada)

- International Development Research Center (research expenses)
- Bank for International Settlements (non-bank deposits abroad; individually supplied by the US Treasury and Bank of England since the BIS is usually one quarter late in arriving)

Other Statistics Canada surveys such as the quarterly survey of financial statements are also used to compile Canada's Balance of International Payments..

Other sources - A variety of other sources are used such as financial press, business publications, company reports, etc.

View the Questionnaire(s) and reporting guide(s).

Error detection

The raw data received from respondents are submitted to edits to ensure consistency and coherence. Historical edits compare data from the latest period to data from earlier reference periods. When necessary, there is follow up with the respondent to verify or correct the data.

There is a manual comparison at an aggregate level with values from previous quarters. When necessary, the manual comparison is made at a micro level.

The data received are also verified against publicly available sources such as securities filings and the financial press.

Imputation

Questionnaires - Historical imputation is used for non-response. Results for the most recent reference period available are used. The annual values are weighted quarterly based on historical quarterly patterns. Data from companies' annual reports are sometimes used to help impute for non-response.

Other sources - Identity equations are used to estimate values not yet available at estimate production time.

Estimation

The data from the various sources are integrated to produce estimates of the value of the international transactions, then results of the double entry accounting system are confronted leading to estimate adjustments; finally the statistical discrepancy (net errors and omissions) is the net unobserved inflow or outflow needed to balance the accounts.

Aggregate level estimates from the balance of payments are compared with the National Economic Account Financial Account and Income and Expenditure Accounts. When data at the macro level appear suspicious, micro components of the suspicious macro results are examined for possible entry errors or erroneous imputation. Respondents are contacted if necessary.

Quality evaluation

In addition to the confrontation of the results of the double entry accounting system the quality of the estimates produced is ascertained using time series consistency analysis, as well as analysis of the coherence of the estimates with well publicized economic events and with related data from other programs.

Canada and the United States, largely because of their extensive commercial ties, have been comparing the bilateral Current Account of their balance of payments since 1970. In a significant number of cases, the reconciliation has resulted in revisions of values and exchange of data.

The estimates of trade in goods and services are benchmarked annually to the Supply and Use Tables of the Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects which could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Revisions - Statistical revisions are carried out in order to incorporate the most recent information from quarterly and annual surveys, taxation statistics, public accounts, censuses, etc.

Data are released approximately 60 days after the reference period. Estimates for each quarter are revised when those for subsequent quarters of the same year are published. At the time of the third quarter of each year, revisions are generally made back three years. Canada's Balance of International Payments is not normally revised again except when comprehensive revisions are carried out.

Components of the current account for which seasonal variation is present are seasonally adjusted using X-12 ARIMA program. Most of the goods, services and secondary income (current transfers) are seasonally adjusted while less than half of the investment income is adjusted for seasonality.

Data accuracy

Non-sampling errors - While considerable effort is made to ensure high standards throughout all stages of collection and processing, the resulting estimates are inevitably subject to a certain degree of non-sampling error. Examples of non-sampling error are coverage error, data response error, non-response error and processing error.

Coverage error can result from incomplete listing and inadequate coverage of the population of Canadian transactors that engage in international transactions.

Data response error may be due to questionnaire design, the characteristics of a question, inability or unwillingness of the respondent to provide correct information, misinterpretation of the questions or definitional problems.

The main consistency checks are quarter to quarter, where closing positions need to match with opening ones. The data from the four quarterly responses should match with the annual data.

Non-response error is related to respondents that may refuse to answer, are unable to respond or are too late in reporting. In these cases, data are imputed. The extent of any imputation error decreases with increases in the response rate and attempts are therefore made to obtain as high a response rate as possible. Final response rates vary considerably between the various questionnaire types. The response rate for the monthly questionnaires is excellent, being consistently between 95% and 100%. The response rate for the quarterly questionnaires is approximately 60%, and slightly above 50% for the annual questionnaires. When the annual respondents are weighted based on key financial variables, the response rate is around 60%. Analysts keep in contact with the respondents to try to maximize the response rate. Slow reporting is often an issue.

Processing error may occur at various stages of processing such as data entry, editing and tabulation. Measures have been taken to minimize these errors. Data entry and edit are performed simultaneously due to the spreadsheet design which allows errors to be quickly seen. Historical ratios also aid in eliminating outliers created by data entry. Tabulation is automated to eliminate human error.

Statistical discrepancy (net errors and omissions) - Equality between the debit part and the credit part of the accounts is never fully achieved due to the variety of sources used and the myriad of transactions. A current and capital account surplus or deficit should correspond to an equivalent net lending (outflow) or net borrowing (inflow) in the financial account. In other words, the two accounts should add to zero. In fact, as data are compiled from multiple sources, the two balance of payments accounts rarely equate. As a result, the statistical discrepancy (net errors and omissions) is the net unobserved inflow or outflow needed to balance the accounts.


For a more detailed discussion of the data accuracy, component by component, see the 'Data Quality' document available in the "Documentation" section below.

Documentation

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