Annual Demographic Estimates : Subprovincial Areas

Detailed information for July 1, 2016

Status:

Active

Frequency:

Annual

Record number:

3608

This estimates program provides estimates of population by age and sex for Census Divisions, Census Metropolitan Areas and Economic Regions.

Data release - March 8, 2017

Description

This estimates program provides estimates of population by age and sex for Census Divisions, Census Metropolitan Areas and Economic Regions.

This estimates program is used in the calculation of demographic, social and economic indicators (fertility rates, mortality rates, nuptiality rates, divorce rates, school enrolment rates, etc.) in which the population, or a part thereof, serves as the denominator. These data are used in calculation of weights for use in Statistics Canada's Surveys (Labour Force Survey, General Social Survey, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, etc.). In addition, the data helps in the preparation of population projections by Statistics Canada, where estimates of population by age and sex are used as the base population.

Reference period: July 1st to June 30th.

Subjects

  • Population and demography
  • Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The population universe covered by the Demographic Estimates Program is similar to the population universe of the census. The following groups of persons are included:

- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants who are abroad, either on a military base or attached to a diplomatic mission;
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry or Canadian government vessels;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who are claiming refugee status and the family members living with them;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold study permits and the family members living with them;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold work permits and the family members living with them.

For census purposes, these last three groups of people are referred to as 'non-permanent residents.' They have been included since 1991. Foreign residents are excluded from the population universe. Foreign residents are persons who belong to the following groups:

- government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and members of their families living with them;
- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada, and family members living with them;
- residents of another country visiting Canada temporarily (for example, a foreign visitor on vacation or on business, with or without a visitor's permit).

Instrument design

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Sampling

No sampling is done for this statistical program.

Data sources

Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

Description of the Component Method - The postcensal population of census divisions (CDs), census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and economics regions (ERs) are produced using data from the most recent census adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU) (including the adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves (IEIR)) and adjusted to July 1st (record no. 3901). Population estimates - preliminary, updated and final - are produced by the component method. This method consists in taking the population figures from the most recent census, adjusted for CNU (including IEIR), and adding or subtracting the number of births, deaths, and components of international and internal (interprovincial and intraprovincial) migration. For example, to estimate the population as of July 1 of a non-census year, demographic events experienced by each cohort (defined here as the total number of persons born during the same census year) since the previous census have to be taken into account. For each component, the sum of the CDs conforms to the corresponding provincial totals, and so the population estimates during these components are also consistent with the provincial population estimates.

Data integration is conducted by combining data from multiple sources, including the latest Census, Census coverage studies (Reverse Record Check (RRC)) and administrative data such as the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC)and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics.

For further information, please refer to: Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Catalogue No. 91-528-XIE.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

No imputation was done.

Estimation

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Quality evaluation

Measure of the precocity errors

The quality of preliminary estimates of components is evaluated using precocity errors. Precocity error is defined as the difference between preliminary and final estimate of a particular component in terms of its relative proportion of the total population for the relevant geographical area. It can be calculated for both population and component estimates. The precocity error measures the impact of the trade-off of accuracy in favour of timeliness on the estimated population.

Analysis of precocity errors allows for useful comparisons between components, as well as between geographical areas of different population size. Note that when compared to the total population for an area, the differences between preliminary and final estimates of the components are quite small. However, this type of error has a different impact on each component and geographical area.

Generally speaking for subprovincial estimates, net interprovincial and subprovincial migration yields the greatest precocity errors. This is likely the result of the use of different data sources for preliminary and final estimates. In most years and for most provinces/territories, births, deaths and immigration estimates yielded the smallest precocity errors. For immigration estimates, this reflects the completeness of the data source and the availability of data for the more timely preliminary estimates. In the case of births and deaths, small precocity errors can be explained by the use of short-term projections for preliminary estimates.

According to the analysis of the most recent precocity errors and assuming that the quality of the basic data remains constant, the present postcensal estimates should have an acceptable degree of reliability.

Measure of the error of closure

The error of closure measures the exactness of the final postcensal estimates. It is defined as the difference between the final postcensal population estimates on Census Day and the enumerated population of the most recent census adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU). A positive error of closure means that the postcensal population estimates have overestimated the population.

The error of closure comes from two sources: errors primarily due to sampling when measuring census coverage and errors related to the components of population growth over the intercensal period. For each five-year intercensal period, the error of closure can only be calculated following the release of census data and estimates of CNU.

By dividing the error of closure by the census population adjusted for CNU the differences are relatively small at the national level (0.2 % for 2001, 0.1 % for 2006 and 0.5 % for 2011). At the provincial and territorial level, as at the subprovincial level differences are understandably larger, since the estimates are also affected by errors in estimating interprovincial and subprovincial migration.

For more detailed information on the quality evaluation of the demographic estimates, see Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Catalogue 91-528-XIE.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects which could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Data are revised once a year and after each census, postcensal estimates are revised to produce the intercensal estimates.

Data accuracy

The estimates of population by age and sex contain certain inaccuracies stemming from (1) errors in corrections for census net undercoverage and (2) imperfections in other data sources and the methods used to estimate the components. Errors due to estimation methodologies and data sources other than censuses are difficult to quantify but not insignificant. The more detailed the breakdown of the data, the larger the inaccuracy coefficient becomes. The component totals contain a certain amount of initial error, and the methodology used to classify them by sex and age produces additional error in the figures at each stage. Nevertheless, the components can be divided into two categories according to the quality of their data sources: births, deaths, immigration and non-permanent residents, for which the sources of final data may be considered very good; emigrants, returning emigrants, net temporary emigrants as well as interprovincial and intraprovincial migration for which the methods used may be a more substantial source of error. Lastly, the size of the error due to component estimation may vary by region, sex, and age and errors in some components (births and emigration) may have a greater impact on a given age group or sex. Intercensal estimates contain the same types of errors as postcensal estimates, as well as errors resulting from the way in which the errors present at the end of the period were distributed, that is, on the basis of the time elapsed since the reference census.

Documentation

  • Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada
    The Population and Family Estimation Methods guide provides detailed descriptions of the data sources and methods used by Statistics Canada to estimate population. They comprise Postcensal and intercensal population estimates; base population; births and deaths; immigration; emigration; non-permanent residents; interprovincial migration; subprovincial estimates of population; population estimates by age, sex and marital status; and census family estimates.

    Last review : January 16, 2017.
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