Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories

Detailed information for 2009 to 2036

This statistical program develops population projections for Canada, provinces and territories by age and sex, based on various assumptions on the components of population growth.

Data release - May 26, 2010

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

This statistical program develops population projections for Canada, provinces and territories by age and sex, based on various assumptions on the components of population growth.

Reference period: The reference period is generally of 50 years from the launch of the projections for Canada and 25 years for the provinces and territories.

Subjects

• Population and demography
• Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The population universe covered by the Population Projections Program is identical to the population universe of the Demographic Estimates Program and the Census. The following groups of persons are included:

- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants who are outside Canada as employees of the Canadian government (federal or provincial) or members of the Canadian Armed Forces, and their families;
- Canadian citizens and landed immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry;
- Non-permanent residents:
- persons in Canada claiming refugee status;
- persons in Canada who hold a student authorization (foreign students and student visa holders);
- persons in Canada who hold an employment authorization (foreign workers and work permit holders);
- persons in Canada who hold a Minister's permit (including extensions);
- all non-Canadian born dependants of persons claiming refugee status or of persons holding student authorization, employment authorization, or Minister's permit.

The following groups of persons, known collectively as foreign residents, are not included in the population universe of the Census:

- government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission, or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and their families;
- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada and their families;

Instrument design

This methodology does not apply.

Sampling

This methodology does not apply.

Data sources

Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

The assumptions underlying the population projections are developed from various data sources: population estimates, vital statistics, administrative files as well as the objectives set by Citizenship and Immigration Canada with regards to immigration targets.

The base population for the projections is the postcensal estimates of the population on July 1st, 2009, which are based on the results of the 2006 Census, adjusted for census net undercoverage.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

This methodology does not apply.

Estimation

The projections are established using the components method. They begin with the population by age, sex and province/territory of residence on July 1st, 2009. Then, on an annual basis, projected birth and immigrant counts are added to this number, and deaths and emigrants are subtracted. The model also takes into account non-permanent residents and interprovincial migrations. The calculations are made at the level of the provinces and territories by age and sex and then the results for Canada as a whole are obtained by summing the data for each geographic unit.

To operationalize the projection model, assumptions on each of the components of population growth must be developed in advance. For example, the projections released in 2010 are based on three assumptions regarding fertility, immigration and mortality, four assumptions on interprovincial migration and a single assumption for non-permanent residents and each of the components of total emigration. A limited number of combinations of assumptions are then selected to create projection scenarios that are plausible in light of past trends.

Quality evaluation

The quality of the population projections is controlled through several mechanisms. First, the assumptions and scenarios underlying the projections, particularly those dealing with the interprovincial migration, are discussed with the different provincial and territorial statistical focal points. These focal points are invited to comment on the preliminary results of the projections, and to suggest means of improvement. Then, the results are compared with those of previous projections, as well as with population projections produced by provincial and territorial statistical agencies. Finally, the results are assessed with regards to past trends, taking age and sex into consideration, as well as each of the population growth components within each province and territory.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Following each population census, new projections replace the previous ones. The most recent edition of catalogue numbers 91-520-XIE and 91-520-SCB include projections based on the 2006 Census.

Data accuracy

The accuracy of any projection is conditional on the reliability of the base population estimates, the component data, and the degree to which the underlying assumptions correspond to future trends. Projections are not predictions; they are instead an effort to create plausible scenarios based on assumptions regarding the components of population growth, which are themselves subject to uncertainty. In this context, the accuracy of the data relies mostly on the calculation correctness and the credibility of the selected assumptions.