Estimates of the number of Census Families for Canada, Provinces and Territories

Detailed information for July 1, 2007

This estimates program provides annual estimates of Census families for Canada, Provinces and Territories.

Data release - January 30, 2008

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

This estimates program provides annual estimates of Census families for Canada, Provinces and Territories.

This estimates program is used in the calculation of demographic, social and economic indicators. These estimates are used for planning, program evaluation and base population for various surveys and studies.

Subjects

• Population and demography
• Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

For the purpose of generating estimates, the definition of family is, with one exception, similar to what is used for the Census. As defined up to and including the 2006 Census, a census family can be any of the following:

- a married couple (with or without children of either or both spouses);
- a couple living common-law (with or without children of either or both partners) ;
- a lone parent of any marital status, with at least one child living in the same dwelling.

The term children refers to blood, step- or adopted sons and daughters (regardless of age or marital status) who are living in the same dwelling as their parent(s), as well as grandchildren in households where there are no parents present. Sons and daughters who are living with their spouse or common-law partner, or with one or more of their own children, are not considered to be members of the census family of their parent(s), even if they are living in the same dwelling. In addition, the sons or daughters who do not live in the same dwelling as their parent(s) are not considered members of the census family of their parent(s). When sons or daughters study or have a summer job elsewhere but return to live with their parent(s) during the year, these sons and daughters are considered members of the census family of their parent(s).

The exception resides in how same-sex couples are recognized. While in census, same sex common-law partners are creating a census family, this is not the case for the estimates program.

Instrument design

This methodology does not apply.

Sampling

This methodology does not apply.

Data sources

Data are collected from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

Due to a reorganization of the Census family estimates program, the Demography Division has used a case-specific method in order to produce reliable postcensal estimates for the 2006 to 2008 period. This method is at once different from the previously used method (components method) and from the method that will be used starting during the winter of 2010 (headship rates method using income tax files).

The main source of information used in the case-specific method is the Census (for the years 2001 and 2006) adjusted for the census net undercoverage.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

This methodology does not apply.

Estimation

The postcensal estimates for the total number of Census families by province and territory, and for the family characteristics in the case of the provinces only, are produced using a methodology that comprises two steps: 1) in order to produce the postcensal estimates, the increase (in %) observed between 2005 and 2006 was applied to the estimate of the number of Census families for the years 2006 and 2007. This calculation was applied to the provinces and territories; 2) total number of families estimated in the previous step is distributed according to family type, sex and age of parents, family size and children's age by extrapolating changes in these distributions as observed between the two previous censuses.

Quality evaluation

Three sources of error and bias contribute to the error of closure: (1) the method used; (2) the correction for census net undercoverage; (3) the universes covered.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Data are revised once a year and after each census, postcensal estimates are revised to produce the intercensal estimates.

Demographic estimates are revised using birth, death and interprovincial and international migration statistics when they become available. Revisions may result in notable changes for certain components, particularly for interprovincial migration.

Interprovincial migration data are derived from two sources. Preliminary migration estimates are based on changes of addresses recorded by the Canada child benefit program from the Canada Revenue Agency, and are available shortly after the reference month. Final interprovincial migration estimates are based on addresses supplied on personal income tax returns, and are available a year after the reference year.

Data accuracy

For more detailed information on the quality evaluation of the estimates of the number of census families, see Chapter 10 of Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Catalogue 91-528-XIE