Estimates of Population by Marital Status, Age and Sex for Canada, Provinces and Territories

Detailed information for July 1, 2001

Status:

Active

Frequency:

Annual

Record number:

3605

This estimates program provides annual estimates of population by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories.

Data release - November 27, 2001

Description

This estimates program provides annual estimates of population by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories.

This estimates program is used in the calculation of demographic, social and economic indicators (nuptiality rates by previous marital status, divorce rates, legitimates birth rates, life tables by marital status, etc.) in which the population, or a part thereof, serves as the denominator. In addition, the data helps in the determination of the annual level of immigration by the Government of Canada.

Reference period: July 1

Subjects

  • Population and demography
  • Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The population universe covered by the Demographic Estimates Program is similar to the population universe of the census. The following groups of persons are included:

- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants who are abroad, either on a military base or attached to a diplomatic mission;
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry or Canadian government vessels;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who are claiming refugee status and the family members living with them;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold study permits and the family members living with them;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold work permits and the family members living with them.

For census purposes, these last three groups of people are referred to as "non-permanent residents". They have been included since 1991. Foreign residents are excluded from the population universe. Foreign residents are persons who belong to the following groups:

- government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and members of their families living with them;
- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada, and family members living with them;
- residents of another country visiting Canada temporarily (for example, a foreign visitor on vacation or on business, with or without a visitor's permit).

Instrument design

This methodology does not apply.

Sampling

This methodology does not apply.

Data sources

Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

These estimates are obtained using data from the most recent census of population (record no. 3901) as well as Vital Statistics data produced by the Health Statistics Division. Data on immigrants and on non-permanent residents are obtained from Immigration and Citizenship Canada.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

This methodology does not apply.

Estimation

Postcensal estimates of population by age, sex and legal marital status are produced using the cohort component method. This method is similar to that used to derive population estimates by age and sex (record no. 3604).

These estimates were obtained by adding to or subtracting from the 2001 Census adjusted for net undercoverage, the events that result in change of marital status. Two series of population estimates by marital status are now available. The usual de facto marital status estimates (in which persons living common-law are considered married) have been derived using a new method. The new series is an estimate by legal marital status in which persons living common-law are classified according to their legal marital status. Since there is no data source on annual formation and dissolution of common-law unions, an alternative method was used for producing de facto marital status population estimates. The number of persons living common-law was estimated using legal marital status estimates and proportions derived from the 2001 Census (counts were previously adjusted for net census undercount). The proportion of single persons living common-law was obtained by dividing the number of single persons living common-law to the total number of singles. The same procedure was used to calculate the proportion of divorced and widowed persons living common-law. The number of persons living common-law by marital status was then subtracted from the legal marital status estimates and added to the married category to produce the population by marital status.

Quality evaluation

Measure of the precocity errors

The quality of preliminary demographic estimates of components is analysed using precocity errors. Precocity error is defined as the difference between preliminary and final estimate of a particular component in terms of its relative proportion of the total population for the relevant geographical area. It can be calculated for both population and component estimates. Precocity error allows for useful comparisons between components, as well as between provinces and territories or geographical areas of different population size.

Note that when compared to the total population for an area, the differences between preliminary and final estimates of the components are quite small. There are, however, differences in the amount of impact on the population estimates between components and between provinces and territories.

Generally speaking, net interprovincial migration yields the greatest precocity errors. This is likely the result of the use of different data sources for preliminary and final estimates. In most years and for most provinces/territories, births, deaths and immigration estimates yielded the smallest precocity errors. For immigration estimates, this reflects the completeness of the data source and the availability of data for the more timely preliminary estimates. For immigration estimates, this reflects the completeness of the data source and the ready availability of data for the more timely preliminary estimates. In the case of births and deaths, small precocity errors support the use of short-term projections for preliminary estimates.

Measure of the error of closure

The error of closure measures the exactness level of the final postcensal estimates. It can be defined as the difference between the enumerated population of the most recent census (after adjustments for census net undercoverage (CNU)) and the most current postcensal population estimates as of Census Day.

The error of closure comes from two sources: The relative differences in the amount of CNU and errors in the components of demographic growth over the intercensal period. With each 5-year intercensal period, the error of closure can only be calculated with the release of census data and estimates of CNU.

By dividing the error of closure by the census population adjusted for CNU, the differences are relatively small at the national level (0.16% for 2001 and 0.32% for 2006). At the provincial and territorial level, differences are understandably larger, since the estimates are also affected by errors in estimating interprovincial migration. Nevertheless, the provincial/territorial final postcensal estimates generally fall within 1% of the adjusted census population, except for the territories that fall within closer adjustments.

For more detailed information on the quality evaluation of the demographic estimates, see Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Catalogue 91-528-XIE.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Data are revised once a year and after each census, postcensal estimates are revised to produce the intercensal estimates.

Demographic estimates are revised using birth, death and interprovincial and international migration statistics when they become available. Revisions may result in notable changes for certain components, particularly for interprovincial migration.

Interprovincial migration data are derived from two sources. Preliminary migration estimates are based on changes of addresses recorded by the Canada child benefit program from the Canada Revenue Agency, and are available shortly after the reference month. Final interprovincial migration estimates are based on addresses supplied on personal income tax returns, and are available a year after the reference year.

Data accuracy

The postcensal population estimates by age, sex and legal marital status contain certain inaccuracies stemming from errors in corrections for net census undercoverage and imperfections in other data sources and the methods used to estimate the components. Errors due to estimation methodologies and data sources other than censuses are difficult to quantify but not insignificant. The more detailed the breakdown of the data, the larger the inaccuracy coefficient becomes. The component totals contain a certain amount of initial error, and the methodology used to classify them by sex, age and marital status produces additional errors in the figures at each stage. Nevertheless, the components can be divided into two categories according to the quality of their data sources: births, deaths, immigration, marriages and divorces, for which the sources of final data may be considered very good; and the number of emigrants, net temporary emigrants, returning emigrants, net non-permanent residents as well as interprovincial migration and the number of newly widowed persons for which the methods used may be a more substantial source of error. Lastly, the size of the error due to component estimation may vary by province, sex and marital status and errors in some components may have a greater impact on a given age group, marital status or sex. Intercensal estimates contain the same types of errors as postcensal estimates, as well as errors resulting from the way in which the errors present at the end of the period were distributed, that is, on the basis of the time elapsed since the reference census.

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