Projections of the Aboriginal Populations, Canada, provinces and territories

Detailed information for 2001-2017

This statistical program develops projections of the aboriginal population for Canada, the provinces and territories, based on various assumptions on the components of population growth.

Data release - June 28, 2005

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

This statistical program develops population projections according to specific identity groups: the North American Indian population, the Métis or the Inuit, for Canada, the provinces and territories. For the North American Indians, future numbers were calculated for the urban parts of all census metropolitan areas (CMAs), urban areas outside CMAs, rural areas, and reserves. For the Métis, places of residence were grouped into urban parts of CMAs, urban areas outside CMAs, and rural areas, which also comprise reserves. Because of their relatively small size, the Inuit population was projected separately for urban and rural locations only. The projections are based on various assumptions on the components of population growth and differential demographic behaviours.

These projections are useful to decision makers in their planning of programs related to aboriginal issues and northern development. The projections are also intended for researchers, students as well as any other person interested in the evolution and future direction of the aboriginal people in Canada.

Subjects

• Indigenous peoples (formerly Aboriginal peoples)
• Population and demography
• Population characteristics
• Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The target population for these projections is the complete Canadian population.

Instrument design

This methodology does not apply.

Sampling

This methodology does not apply.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

This methodology does not apply.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

The model may be subject to revisions to be carried out on a cost recovery basis.

Data accuracy

The accuracy of any projection depends on the quality of the data relating to the base population and the components of population growth, as well as the adequacy of the assumptions on future trends. Projections are not predictions; they instead represent an effort to establish plausible scenarios based on assumptions relating to the components, demographic or otherwise, of growth, which are themselves subject to uncertainty. Accordingly, it cannot be claimed that the values to be observed over the coming years will always remain within the range suggested by the projection scenarios.