Quarterly Demographic Estimates (QDE)
Detailed information for July 1, 2024
Status:
Active
Frequency:
Quarterly
Record number:
3601
This estimates program provides quarterly estimates of total population for Canada, provinces and territories.
Data release - September 25, 2024
Description
This estimates program provides quarterly estimates of total population for Canada, provinces and territories.
This estimates program is used in the calculation of demographic, social and economic indicators. Estimated population counts play a vital role under the Federal-Provincial Fiscal Arrangements and Federal Post-Secondary Education and Health Contributions Act, as well as with the Canada Student Loans Act, in determining the amounts of federal-provincial-territorial transfers. In addition, the data helps in the determination of the annual level of immigration by the Government of Canada.
Postcensal estimates are based on the 2021 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements.
Subjects
- Population and demography
- Population estimates and projections
Data sources and methodology
Target population
The population universe covered by the Demographic Estimates Program is similar to the population universe of the census. The following groups of persons are included:
• Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization), landed immigrants (permanent residents), and (since 1991) non-permanent residents. Non-permanent residents are persons who have claimed refugee status [asylum claimants, protected persons and members of related groups], or persons who hold a work or study permit and their family members living with them (the census universe also includes people with a usual place of residence in Canada, who hold a temporary resident permit [formerly known as a Minister's Permit], and their family members living with them). All such persons are included in the population provided they have a usual place of residence in Canada.
• The total population also includes certain Canadian citizens and landed immigrants (permanent residents) living outside the country: government employees working outside Canada; embassy staff posted to other countries; members of the Canadian Armed Forces stationed outside Canada; and Canadian crew members of merchant vessels and their families. Together, they are referred to as 'persons living outside Canada.'
• Foreign residents are excluded from census data: for example, residents of another country visiting Canada temporarily, government representatives of another country posted in Canada and members of the armed forces of another country stationed in Canada.
Instrument design
This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.
Sampling
This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.
Data sources
Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.
Postcensal estimates are produced using data from the most recent census adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU) (including the adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements (IERS)). Population estimates - preliminary, updated and final - are produced by the component method. This method consists in taking the population figures from the most recent census, adjusted for CNU (including IERS), and adding or subtracting the number of births, deaths, and components of international and interprovincial migration.
Error detection
This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.
Imputation
No imputation was done.
Estimation
Population estimates can be either intercensal or postcensal. Intercensal estimates are produced using counts from two consecutive censuses adjusted for the census net undercoverage (CNU) (including the adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements (IERS)) and postcensal estimates. The production of intercensal estimates involves updating the postcensal estimates using the counts from a new census adjusted for the CNU (including IERS).
Postcensal estimates are produced using data from the most recent census adjusted for CNU (including IERS) and the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, and interprovincial and international migration). In terms of timeliness, postcensal estimates are more up-to-date than data from the most recent census adjusted for the CNU (including IERS), but as they get farther from the date of that census, they become more variable.
Estimates of population are first produced for each province and territory, and then summed to obtain an estimate of the population of Canada.
For more detailed information regarding population estimation methods, see Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography, Catalogue No. 91-528-XIE.
Quality evaluation
Measure of the precocity error
The quality of preliminary estimates is evaluated using precocity errors. Precocity error is defined as the difference between preliminary and final estimate in terms of its relative proportion of the postcensal population. It can be calculated for both population and component estimates. Precocity error allows for useful comparisons between components, as well as between provinces and territories of different population size.
Note that when compared to the population for an area, the differences between preliminary and final estimates of the components are quite small. There are, however, differences in the impact of this type of error on the components, the provinces and the territories.
Generally speaking, net interprovincial migration yields the greatest precocity errors. This is the result of the use of different data sources for preliminary and final estimates. In most periods and for most provinces and territories, births, deaths and immigration estimates yield the smallest precocity errors. For immigration estimates, this reflects the completeness of the data sources and the availability of data for more timely preliminary estimates. In the case of births and deaths, small precocity errors can be explained by the use of a different method (method of ratios) for preliminary estimates.
Measure of the error of closure
The error of closure measures the accuracy of the final postcensal estimates. It is defined as the difference between the final postcensal population estimates on Census Day and the enumerated population of the most recent census adjusted for the census net undercoverage (CNU) and the adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements (IERS). A positive error of closure means that the postcensal population estimates have overestimated the population.
The error of closure comes from three sources: errors primarily due to sampling when measuring the starting and end of period censuses coverage and errors related to the components of population growth over the intercensal period. For each five-year intercensal period, the error of closure can only be calculated following the release of census data and estimates of the CNU (including IERS).
By dividing the error of closure by the census population adjusted for the CNU, the differences are relatively small at the national level (0.16% for 2001, 0.12% for 2006, 0.46% for 2011, 0.33% for 2016 and -0.11% for 2021). At the provincial and territorial level, differences are understandably larger, since the estimates are also affected by errors in estimating interprovincial migration. Nevertheless, postcensal estimates generally fall within 1% of the adjusted census population, except for the territories and a few provinces.
For more detailed information on the quality evaluation of the demographic estimates, see Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography, Catalogue No. 91-528-XIE.
Disclosure control
Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.
In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.
Revisions and seasonal adjustment
Data are revised once a year. After each census, postcensal estimates are revised to produce the intercensal estimates.
Demographic estimates are revised using birth, death and interprovincial and international migration statistics when they become available.
Interprovincial migration data are derived from two sources. Preliminary migration estimates are based on changes of addresses recorded by the Canada child benefit program from Canada Revenue Agency, and are available shortly after the reference month. Final interprovincial migration estimates are based on addresses supplied on personal income tax returns, and are available a year after the reference year.
Data accuracy
The estimates contain a certain margin of inaccuracy stemming both from errors in corrections for the census net undercoverage (CNU) and errors arising in estimating the components. The CNU rate for Canada in the 2021 Census was 3.14%. On the basis of the quality of the data sources, the components can be divided into two categories: the first consists of births, deaths, and immigration, for which the sources can be considered nearly perfect where final data are used; and the second is emigration, returning emigration, non-permanent residents and particularly, interprovincial migration, for which the methods used may be a more substantial source of error.
Documentation
- Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada
The Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada guide provides detailed descriptions of the data sources and methods used by Statistics Canada to estimate population. They comprise postcensal and intercensal population estimates; base population; births and deaths; immigration; emigration; non-permanent residents; interprovincial migration; subprovincial estimates of population; population estimates by age, sex and marital status; and census family estimates.
Last review: November 17, 2015
- Date modified: