Estimates of the number of Census Families for Canada, Provinces and Territories

Detailed information for July 1, 2011

This estimates program provides annual estimates of census families for Canada, provinces and territories.

Data release - March 26, 2013

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

This estimates program provides annual estimates of census families for Canada, provinces and territories.

This estimates program is used in the calculation of demographic, social and economic indicators. These estimates are used for planning, program evaluation and base population for various studies.

Subjects

• Population and demography
• Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

For the purpose of generating estimates, the definition of family is, with one exception, similar to what is used for the census. As defined up to and including the 2006 Census, a census family can be any of the following:

- a married couple (with or without children of either or both spouses);
- a couple living common-law (with or without children of either or both partners) ;
- a lone parent of any marital status, with at least one child living in the same dwelling.

The term children refers to blood, step- or adopted sons and daughters (regardless of age or marital status) who are living in the same dwelling as their parent(s), as well as grandchildren in households where there are no parents present. Sons and daughters who are living with their spouse or common-law partner, or with one or more of their own children, are not considered to be members of the census family of their parent(s), even if they are living in the same dwelling. In addition, the sons or daughters who do not live in the same dwelling as their parent(s) are not considered members of the census family of their parent(s). When sons or daughters study or have a summer job elsewhere but return to live with their parent(s) during the year, these sons and daughters are considered members of the census family of their parent(s).

The exception resides in how same-sex couples are recognized. While in census, same sex common-law partners are creating a census family, this is not the case for the estimates program before 2006. Starting in 2006, the estimates program has the same definition as the census.

Instrument design

This methodology does not apply.

Sampling

This methodology does not apply.

Data sources

Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

Before 2006, these estimates were based on results from the census, adjusted for family census net undercoverage. Starting in 2006, census family estimates are computed using data from the T1 Family File (T1FF), the census, the family census net undercoverage coming from coverage studies and population estimates.

Unlike other demographic estimates released by Demography Division, these estimates are based on the 2006 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage.

Error detection

This methodology type does not apply to this statistical program.

Imputation

This methodology does not apply.

Estimation

From 1986 to 2006, the intercensal estimates were the result of a linear interpolation between census counts adjusted for family census net undercoverage.

Starting in 2006, census family postcensal estimates are produced with a three steps methodology: (1) Correction of the T1FF biases using census numbers of family heads; (2) Adjustment of the T1FF data for the reference date using population estimates; (3) Adjustment of the coverage of the census using census coverage studies.

Quality evaluation

Three sources of error and bias contribute to the error of closure: (1) the method used; (2) the correction for census net undercoverage; (3) the universes covered.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Data are revised once a year and after each census, postcensal estimates are revised to produce the intercensal estimates.

Demographic estimates are revised using birth, death and interprovincial and international migration statistics when they become available. Revisions may result in notable changes for certain components, particularly for interprovincial migration.

Interprovincial migration data are derived from two sources. Preliminary migration estimates are based on changes of addresses recorded by the Canada child benefit program from the Canada Revenue Agency, and are available shortly after the reference month. Final interprovincial migration estimates are based on addresses supplied on personal income tax returns, and are available a year after the reference year.

Data accuracy

For more detailed information on the quality evaluation of the estimates of the number of census families, see Chapter 10 of Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Catalogue 91-528-XIE