Estimates of Population by Age and Sex for Census Divisions, Census Metropolitan Areas and Economic Regions (Component Method)

Detailed information for July 1, 2012

This estimates program provides estimates of population by age and sex for Census Divisions, Census Metropolitan Areas and Economic Regions.

Data release - February 6, 2013

• Description
• Data sources and methodology
• Data accuracy

Description

This estimates program provides estimates of population by age and sex for Census Divisions, Census Metropolitan Areas and Economic Regions.

This estimates program is used in the calculation of demographic, social and economic indicators (fertility rates, mortality rates, nuptiality rates, divorce rates, school enrolment rates, etc.) in which the population, or a part thereof, serves as the denominator. These data are used in calculation of weights for use in Statistics Canada's Surveys (Labour Force Survey, General Social Survey, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, etc.). In addition, the data helps in the preparation of population projections by Statistics Canada, where estimates of population by age and sex are used as the base population.

Subjects

• Population and demography
• Population estimates and projections

Data sources and methodology

Target population

The population universe covered by the Demographic Estimates Program is similar to the population universe of the census. The following groups of persons are included:

- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;

- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants who are abroad, either on a military base or attached to a diplomatic mission;

- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry;

- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who are claiming refugee status and members of their families living with them;

- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold a Study Permit and members of their families living with them;

- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold a Work Permit and members of their families living with them.

For census purposes, the last three groups in this list are referred to as non-permanent residents (NPR).

Foreign residents have not been enumerated since 1991. Foreign residents are persons who belong to the following groups:

- Government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and members of their families living with them;

- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada, and members of their families living with them;

- residents of another country visiting Canada temporarily (for example, a foreign visitor on vacation or on business, with or without a visitor's permit).

Data sources

Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.

Description of the Component Method - To estimate the population of census divisions (CDs), census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and economics regions (ERs) for each single year of age and sex, the component method uses the most recent Census of Population (record no. 3901) adjusted for net census undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves) as the base population to which are added the components of demographic change, such as births, deaths, immigration, non-permanent residents, returning Canadians, emigration, internal migration (interprovincial and intraprovincial migration). For each component, the sum of the CDs conforms to the corresponding provincial totals, and so the population estimates during these components are also consistent with the provincial population estimates.

Quality evaluation

Measure of the precocity errors

The quality of preliminary estimates of components is analysed using precocity errors. Precocity error is defined as the difference between preliminary and final estimate in terms of its relative proportion of the total population. It can be calculated for both population and component estimates. Precocity error allows for useful comparisons between components, as well as between different geographical levels of different population size.

Note that when compared to the total population for an area, the differences between preliminary and final estimates of the components are quite small. There are, however, differences in the amount of impact on the population estimates between components and geographical areas.

Generally speaking, net interprovincial and subprovincial migration yields the greatest precocity errors. This is likely the result of the use of different data sources for preliminary and final estimates. In most years and for most provinces/territories, births, deaths and immigration estimates yielded the smallest precocity errors. For immigration estimates, this reflects the completeness of the data source and the availability of data for the more timely preliminary estimates. In the case of births and deaths, small precocity errors can be explained by the use of short-term projections for preliminary estimates.

According to the analysis of the most recent precocity errors and assuming that the quality of the basic data remains constant, the present postcensal estimates should have an acceptable degree of reliability.

Measure of the error of closure

The error of closure measures the exactness level of the final postcensal estimates. It can be defined as the difference between postcensal population estimates and the census counts (adjusted for CNU) as of Census Day.

The error of closure comes from two sources: the relative differences in the amount of CNU between consecutive census and errors in the components of the demographic growth over the intercensal period. This can be calculated for total population estimates and by age and sex. With each 5-year intercensal period, the error of closure can only be calculated with the release of census data and estimates of CNU.

By dividing the error of closure by the census population adjusted for CNU the differences are relatively small at the national level (0.16% for 2001 and 0.32% for 2006). At the provincial and territorial level, as at the subprovincial level differences are understandably larger, since the estimates are also affected by errors in estimating interprovincial and subprovincial migration. Nevertheless, postcensal estimates generally fall within 1% of the adjusted census population, except for the territories, a few provinces and some subprovincial areas.

Disclosure control

Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any information it collects that could identify any person, business, or organization, unless consent has been given by the respondent or as permitted by the Statistics Act. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.

In order to prevent any data disclosure, confidentiality analysis is done using the Statistics Canada Generalized Disclosure Control System (G-Confid). G-Confid is used for primary suppression (direct disclosure) as well as for secondary suppression (residual disclosure). Direct disclosure occurs when the value in a tabulation cell is composed of or dominated by few enterprises while residual disclosure occurs when confidential information can be derived indirectly by piecing together information from different sources or data series.

Revisions and seasonal adjustment

Non-final postcensal data are revised once a year. After each census, postcensal estimates are revised to produce the intercensal estimates.

Data accuracy

The estimates contain a certain margin of inaccuracy stemming both from errors in corrections for CNU and errors arising from the component estimation methods. The average absolute errors for all CDs and CMAs in Canada for the period 1991-1996 are about 1.59% and 0.61% respectively. For the 1996-2001 period, the average absolute error for all CDs, CMAs and ERs in Canada are 1.26%, 0.14% and 0.95%, respectively. Finally, for the 2001-2006 period, the average absolute error for all CDs, CMAs and ERs in Canada are 0.32%, 0.51% and 0.32% respectively. The total CNU rate for Canada in the 1996 Census of Population (record number 3901) was about 2.4%, in the 2001 Census of Population it was of 3.1% and in the 2006 Census of Population the rate was of 2.8%. The quality of the data sources varies according to the component. Births, deaths, immigration and non-permanent residents are produced using administrative files where the universe is complete and controlled by law. However, total emigration and interprovincial and intraprovincial migration may be a more substantial source of error since administrative files do not entirely cover the targeted universe.